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Research Projects

Modeling the Population Dynamics of The Zika Vector In the Key West

We have developed a model of mosquito population dynamics in the Key West, Florida. The model uses behavior patterns of the Zika vector, Aedes aegypti, to simulate the distribution of mosquitoes on a spatial environment. We use satellite imagery to identify locations with vegetation and houses which are critical for nuitirion of male and female mosquitoes respectively. Along with stochastically established breeding sites in the environment, we create a spatially constrained geography for the mosquito agents to live upon. In addition we simulate the average temperature fluctuations through the period of a year in the Key West. The spatially and climatically constrained model is then used to estimate the numbers of mosquitoes at different times of the year.

This model has then been used to experiment with two different vector control strategies: 1) Release of Insects with Dominant Lethal gene (or RIDL) and 2) release of Wolbachia infected mosquitoes.

Related Publications:

44 "Evaluation of Zika Vector Control Strategies Using Agent-Based Modeling”. [PDF]
Authors: Chathika Gunaratne, Mustafa Ilhan Akbas, Ivan Garibay and Ozlem Ozmen Garibay
arXiv, April, 2016.





UCF Complex Adaptive Systems Laboratory
12201 Research Parkway, Suite 501
Orlando, FL 32826-3246
Phone: 407.823.1837
Ivan Garibay, Director